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Champions League or Bust

What do the Rossoneri need in the final push for 4th?

Club Atletico de Madrid v AC Milan - UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Photo by Denis Doyle/Getty Images

There are 10 games left in the season after the international break, Milan has inserted themselves back into the Champions League picture with important games left to be played. To do this I started to wonder how many points will Milan need to reach 4th place. In this I looked back at the past 10 seasons and how many points were needed to secure 4th. In the past decade, the average point accrued by the 4th place finisher is 66.7 points.

Serie A 4th Place 2007–2017

Season Team Points
Season Team Points
2016 - 2017 Atlanta 72
2015 - 2016 Inter 67
2014 - 2015 Fiorentina 64
2013 - 2014 Fiorentina 65
2012 - 2013 Fiorentina 70
2011 - 2012 Lazio 62
2010 - 2011 Udinese 66
2009 - 2010 Sampdoria 67
2008 - 2009 Fiorentina 68
2007 - 2008 Fiorentina 66
Average 66.7

Right now Milan is sitting on 50 points and with 10 games to go, I think 70 points will be needed if the Rossoneri want to return home to the Champions League next year. This stretch will open with a trip to 1st place Juventus on March 31st and then days later on April 4th the Derby against Inter. Inter currently sits in 4th with 55 points. This to me makes the Derby the most important game left on the schedule.

You have to take points off of Inter and gain ground if you want to have a legitimate shot. This is because the only team in the top 6 that Inter has yet to play this spring besides Milan is Lazio. To catch Inter you need to beat Inter. Any points you take off Juventus, and then Napoli on April 15th is a bonus at this stage. I would rather win this weekend against Juve than the Coppa Italia. 4th place is the most important.

As for the teams left on the schedule outside of the top 6, all you have to do is take care of your business, and getting to 70 points is very possible. The true challenges of those games will be Atalanta (7th) and Fiorentina (9th). The rest of the teams Torino (10th), Bologna (11th), and Sassuolo (15th) are midtable teams with Verona (19th) and Benevento (20th, worked out well last time) firmly in the relegation zone.

70 may not be enough but if the past is any indicator, it will give you a great shot at getting up to 4th place. We all know what the would mean for the players, the club and the fans for this season and beyond. In the end, if Milan plays with the same intensity, skill and passion they have been for the last few months under Gattuso I am confident we will all be huddled around our screens to see which stadiums across Europe are about to get a red and black invasion.

What games left do you think are must-win for Milan to close out the season?